One carrier in the UK says no

O2 have gone on record to say that even with three attempts Sony cannot make a decent go of the ICS firmware for 2011 handsets.

http://www.coolsmartphone.com/2012/08/31/xperia-arc-ray-and-neo-updates-blocked-by-o2/

Looks like we are out of luck and may have to look into a new manufacturer if we want a phone which will be looked after in the future.